We closed a weekly candle above the 2.5 Year resistance level of $12k. We are testing the final resistance level of $14k. Next stop….$20k
Lets look at where we are in the 11 year cycle of Bitcoin.
This is the BLX chart, showing the longest trading history of Bitcoin. As you can see, the 21EMA on the Weekly is a strong indicator of positive bullish cycles. When we are below the 21EMA, we have a Bear Market. When we are above the 21EMA we enter the Bull Market.
Bitcoin has held above the 21EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the chart weekly for 24 Weeks! Bullish!
Here we see for the entire history of Bitcoin, we have held above the 200 Week Moving Average. Very strong support level. The previous test of the 200MA in August 2015, lead to the remarkable rally to $19k culminating in December 2017.
We have tested the 200 Week MA twice again, showing strong support and continuation to the upside. Bullish.
The monthly Chart shows the previous breakout in 2016 from the Triangle Pattern.
In technical analysis, when an asset breaks out of a triangle pattern like this and continues to hold above the previous diagonal resistance, that is BULLISH.
Here is another view from the weekly. Again, history tends never repeats exactly, but it tends to rhyme. Similar set up, similar breakout potential.
If we get a weekly candle close above $12k, it will be the first time in 3 years. That would signal to investors that Bitcoin is trending up as it clears a major resistance level. The risk to reward ratio is more in your favor if we confirm support above $12k.
Is this a good time to buy? According to the Fear and Greed Index, we still have room to move up before another correction.
We have moved out of the “Neutral” zone and into “Greed”.
Since May of 2020, we have held the 40 range as support — 6 months.
Any time Bitcoin reaches the 80–90 range, a correction soon follows as smart investors sell and take profits.
This could happen in line with the next major resistance level — $14k
If we break $14k, that will be major! There would be no further resistance until the ALL TIME HIGH $20k.
We are on track…Bitcoin could realistically hit $100,000+ in this next bull market.
HODL Wave data groups Bitcoin by age since it was last moved from one wallet to another.
In this example we are looking at the percentage of all bitcoins that have not been moved from one wallet to another for at least 1 year. It is an indicator that people are holding and not selling their Bitcoin. We hit an all time high of 63%, the previous peak set in 2016 was 62%.
